Key data releases this week include: JOLTS job openings (Mon), NFIB business optimism (Tue), PPI (Tue), CPI (Wed), FOMC rate decision (Wed), retail sales (Thu), and industrial production (Fri).
Haver
December 8, 2017
The labor market remained on a firm footing last month. Nonfarm payrolls increased 228,000 (1.4% y/y) during November following a 244,000 October increase. Together these two figures were revised up by 3,000. A 198,000 increase in payrolls had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, as expected.
Haver
December 6, 2017
Output per hour in the nonfarm business sector grew at an unrevised 3.0% annual rate (1.5% y/y) in the third quarter following a 1.5% Q2 gain. It was the quickest productivity increase in three years. A 3.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Deutsche Welle/Deutsche Presse-Agentur/Reuters
December 4, 2017
Handelsblatt
Friday, December 1, 2017
Signs are emerging that German Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union is progressing toward a governing coalition, as the country begins a third month without a government. Social Democratic Party head Martin Schulz, who had opposed working with Christian Democrats, has greenlighted talks with the party.
Bloomberg
December 3, 2017
The gap between credit and GDP in China has fallen for five consecutive quarters to 18.9%, compared with 28.8% at the start of 2016, according to the Bank for International Settlements. The figures are seen as a sign the country is progressing toward its goal to lower financial risk.
Barron’s
December 11, 2017
BCA Research’s number one serious (but unlikely) event that could affect markets is that President Trump’s low poll numbers could cause him to seek “relevance” abroad, perhaps with a trade war with China or a confrontation with Iran. North Korea is too visible to be a black swan, but a coup in Pyongyang would qualify.
Barron’s
December 11, 2017
People 55 and older are the only age group that has had a rise in its labor force participation rate since 2007. They now account for 22.8% of the workforce, up from 17.6%.
Barron’s
December 11, 2017
During the past 20 years, just five Decembers have finished in negative territory. The rest of the time, December has delivered gains – often quite good ones: The average December rise has been 2.6%.
Barron’s
December 11, 2017
Given synchronized global growth and rising corporate profits, 2018 could be another good year for stocks, notwithstanding the bull’s advancing age. The S&P 500 could gain about 7%, mirroring similar gains in corporate profits, according to the consensus forecast of 10 strategists at major investment banks and money management firms.
Reuters
December 11, 2017
Business Insider
Monday, December 11, 2017
December 10, 2017
Financial Times
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to increase interest rates this week, making any forward guidance for 2018 more critical than the increase itself. Jerome Powell, who has been nominated chairman, has said the economy has space to run before heating up, indicating he would lead the Fed in a more dovish direction.

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