Key data releases this week include: durable goods orders (Tue), ISM non-manufacturing (Wed), FOMC minutes June 14-15 (Wed), and nonfarm payrolls (Fri).
Haver
June 28, 2016
Economic growth during the first quarter was revised up slightly. GDP grew 1.1% (SAAR, 2.1% y/y) following a 0.8% rise estimated last month, and 0.5% in the advance estimate. Slight improvement in the foreign trade deficit fueled the upward revision to growth. Nevertheless, the moderation in real economic growth during Q1 remained primarily due to weaker consumer spending and a decline in business investment. GDP's increase matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Haver
July 1, 2016
Factory sector activity continues to firm following last year's weakness. The ISM Composite Index of manufacturing activity increased to 53.2 during June following an unrevised May gain to 51.3. The latest level was the highest since February 2015, after falling as low as 48.0 in December. June's level beat expectations for 51.3 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
George Friedman, Geopolitical Futures
June 28, 2016
Foreign ministers from the EU’s six founding member states issued an extraordinary statement, declaring they will “recognize different levels of ambition amongst Member States when it comes to the project of European integration.” This was a landmark capitulation by the major European powers, accepting the idea that uniformity across the bloc is impossible and nations can choose the terms of membership.
Jim Glassman, JP Morgan
June 29, 2016
It’s possible that Britain’s exodus from the European Union could end up strengthening the resolve of European leaders to move forward with continued economic integration. The more significant consequence of the UK referendum could be that it eventually leads to a fracturing of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, given the strong sentiment in Scotland and Northern Ireland to remain in the EU.
Bloomberg
June 27, 2016
The Wall Street Journal
Monday, June 27, 2016
Italy is looking at a variety of steps that could inject as much as €40 billion into the banking system, a person familiar with the matter said. Lenders could get support in the form of pledges or by making capital available to them, the person said.
The Economist
June 25, 2016
Mckinsey Global Institute calculates that over four-fifths of all “economic profits” (which take into account the cost of capital) generated in China come from one industry: finance. By the same measure, almost half of the 20 biggest industries make a loss.
Barron’s
July 4, 2016
Bloomberg data passed along by Bianco Research shoes that $12.7 trillion – 36% of the $35.07 trillion of all sovereign global debt – yielded less than zero, as of June 30th. Some $14.5 trillion, or 41%, yields zero to 1%.
Barron’s
July 4, 2016
Despite the referendum results, it is not even clear that the U.K. will leave the European Union. Such an outcome would not be unprecedented. Greek voters rejected a bailout proposal last year by 61% to 39%. Yet, Greece is still a member of the European Union, as its government ended up accepting the proposed bailout – and the austerity that went with it.
Ed Yardeni Research/Barron’s
July 4, 2016
Once again the whole world depends on U.S. consumers, and they haven’t let us down so far. Over the past three months through May, the average of real personal-consumption expenditures is up 2.9% (SAAR), the best such growth rate since September.

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