Key data releases this week include: personal income and spending (Mon), pending home sales (Mon), ISM manufacturing index (Wed), FOMC decision (Wed), nonfarm payrolls (Fri), and ISM nonmanufacturing index (Fri).
Haver
January 27, 2017
Economic growth decelerated during Q4'16 to 1.9% from a 3.5% gain in Q3. For all of last year, growth also decelerated to 1.6% from 2.6% in 2015. The Q4 figure fell short of expectations for a 2.1% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Haver
January 26, 2017
Sales of new single-family homes declined 10.4% to 536,000 during December from a revised 598,000 in November, initially reported as 592,000. Sales of 589,000 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During December, sales remained unchanged y/y, but for all of 2016, sales rose 12.2% y/y to 562,000, the highest level since 2007.
Haver
January 24, 2017
During all of 2016, sales of existing homes increased 3.8% to 5.452 million, the highest level since 2006, when sales reached 6.478 million. During December alone, however, sales eased 2.8% (+0.7% y/y) to 5.490 million units (AR) from 5.650 million in November, revised up from 5.610 million. Expectations had been for 5.530 million purchases in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Reuters
January 24, 2017
Belfast Telegraph
Tuesday, January 24, 2017
January 24, 2017
Politico Pro
The pound's "flash crash" in October highlights the need for deeper understanding of how markets work, says Chris Salmon, executive markets director at the Bank of England. He notes that the reasons for the fall remain unexplained and warns that more events of this nature could occur across markets.
Reuters
January 26, 2017
Financial Times
Thursday, January 26, 2017
January 26, 2017
The Wall Street Journal
Bond yields reached 12-month highs in Germany, Portugal, France and Italy this week. Benchmark German Bund yields approached 50 basis points from minus 19 early last year.
Barron’s
January 30, 2017
So-called survivor bias has benefitted the Dow. Since April 2004, David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff found that, if the eight companies that were replaced in the DJIA had been kept on, the blue chips would have been at just 12,885 now.
Barron’s
January 30, 2017
Harvard University’s endowment fund one-, five-, and 10-year investment performance has been weak, trailing a 60/40 blend of U.S. stocks and bonds. The latter has returned 6.9% annually over 10 years versus Harvard’s 5.7%. Over that same period, the S&P 500 index returned 7.4%.
Barron’s
January 30, 2017
CFRA/Barron’s
Monday, January 30, 2017
S&P 500 earnings per share are now projected to rise 4.7% in the final quarter of 2016 versus the 4.2% beginning-of-quarter estimate. If history repeats, fourth-quarter EPS could be up by close to 8%, as actual results have topped initial estimates by an average of 3.6 percentage points.
Capital Economics
January 23, 2017
With base effects helping to lift headline inflation back above 2% in December, we expect an acceleration in wage growth along with a stimulus-fuelled pick-up in GDP growth to drive both headline and core CPI inflation above 3% by the end of this year. Donald Trump’s election victory has introduced considerable uncertainty over the outlook, however, and there are a number of risks which could have a significant bearing on the inflation outlook.

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