Key data releases this week include: industrial production (Tue), NAHB housing index (Tue), housing starts (Wed), Beige Book (Wed), leading economic indicators (Thu), and existing home sales (Fri).
CNBC
October 11, 2017
An interest-rate increase in December has strong support among the members of the Federal Open Market Committee, minutes from its September meeting show. Officials said they were confident the economy is growing steadily, despite the slow rise of inflation.
Haver
October 13, 2017
The Consumer Price index increased 0.5% (2.2% y/y) during September following a 0.4% August gain. It was the strongest increase since January and compared to expectations for a 0.6% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The CPI excluding food & energy ticked 0.1% higher (1.7% y/y) following a 0.2% rise.
Reuters
October 12, 2017
Politico Pro
Thursday, October 12, 2017
The European Central Bank isn't getting close to pushing interest rates higher, said President Mario Draghi. Interest rates will be held at their current levels "well past" the end of the ECB's bond-buying scheme, he said.
Barron’s
October 16, 2017
While the Fed will never admit it has lifted rates due to rich valuations in equity and other asset markets, it is certainly weighing on its decision. In the minutes of the July meeting, the central bank explicitly highlights stretched equity valuations, suggesting risk appetite is heading for unsustainable levels.
Barron’s
October 16, 2017
Corporate debt levels are soaring. Just last week, S&P Global Ratings issued a report noting the median debt level at U.S. companies is higher than just before the financial crisis.
Barron’s
October 16, 2017
The proliferation of computer-driven investing has created an illusion that risk can be measured and managed. But several anomalous episodes in recent years involving sudden, severe, and seemingly inexplicable price swings suggest the next market selloff could be exacerbated by the fact that the machines are at the controls.
Reuters
October 10, 2017
The Washington Post
Tuesday, October 10, 2017
October 10, 2017
Politico Pro
The International Monetary Fund raised its global economic forecast to 3.6% for 2017 and 3.7% for 2018. The IMF left its growth forecast for the US unchanged at 2.2% in 2017 and 2.3% in 2018, and warned that long-term growth likely will be slow in response to minimal improvement in productivity and significant demographic changes.
The Washington Post
October 12, 2017
Tom Lin, a professor who has studied the effects of technology on financial markets, points out that increasingly used computer algorithms are unable to differentiate between fake and genuine news, which can lead to false market moves. A recent fake news story that Google was launching a bid to buy Apple sent Apple's share price briefly upward, and a false tweet that US economic adviser Gary Cohn was stepping down caused a short but sharp market downturn.
CNBC
October 11, 2017
Technical analyst Louise Yamada, CMT, says the period of declining US interest rates is on the verge of reversal. "I think the two-year [bond] yield has actually been telling us that interest rates are on their way for a reversal from the 36-year declining interest rate cycle, to a new rising interest rate cycle," Yamada says.

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