Key data releases this week include: ISM manufacturing index (Mon), durable goods orders (Tue), ISM nonmanufacturing index (Wed), FOMC minutes (Wed), and nonfarm payrolls (Fri).
March 28, 2017
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March strengthened 8.2% (30.7% y/y) to 125.6, the highest level since December 2000. February's level was revised higher to 116.1 from 114.8. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a decline to 113.6.
March 29, 2017
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales increased 5.5% in February to an index level of 112.3, the highest point since April 2016. The NAR suggested that warm temperatures helped lift sales.
Deutsche Welle/Reuters/The Guardian
March 27, 2017
Economia magazine online
Monday, March 27, 2017
An umbrella group representing UK manufacturers said that if Britain withdrew from the EU without negotiating a trade deal, it would be disastrous for their industry. The trade organization challenged a statement by UK Prime Minister Theresa May that "no deal will be better than a bad deal."
South China Morning Post
March 27, 2017
The People's Bank of China is quietly asking banks to slow the growth of mortgage lending, sources at state-owned banks in Shanghai said. The central bank is using "window guidance" to deleverage the housing market, industry sources said.
April 3, 2017
Actual EPS for S&P 500 companies have exceeded initial estimates in each of the last 20 quarters by an average of 3.7%. Therefore, first-quarter EPS growth could end up being close to 14% - a number that would assist in validating postelection optimism.
April 3, 2017
According to Ed Yardeni, “The global economy is showing more signs of improving in recent months. That’s already boosting revenue growth for the S&P 500, and should be increasingly obvious as corporations report their top-line growth rates during the first-quarter earnings season in April.”
March 27, 2017
Technical analyst Katie Stockton has shrugged off concerns over the US stock market's health, after the failure of the Trump administration's healthcare bill caused indexes to fall this week. Stockton, who in July correctly predicted that a significant rally was coming, contends that the underlying factors are still strong and the overall uptrend is set to resume.
March 30, 2017
The Federal Reserve is likely to begin reducing its $4.5 trillion balance sheet in early 2018, JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli wrote in a research note. He expects the Fed to stop reinvesting in mortgage-backed securities next year and to reach its target by early 2024.
March 28, 2017
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley said three interest-rate hikes in 2017 is a “reasonable” projection and that the central bank may also begin shrinking its balance sheet later this year or in 2018, possibly pausing rate increases in the process. As president of the New York Fed, Dudley has a permanent vote on the FOMC and is widely seen as one of its most influential members. Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer also said the FOMC’s median estimate for two more rate hikes this year “seems about right.”


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