Key data releases this week include: Labor market conditions index (Mon), NFIB small business optimism (Tue), nonfarm productivity (Tue), and retail sales (Fri).
Haver
August 5, 2016
The job market remained on firm footing during July. Nonfarm payroll employment grew 255,000 (1.7% y/y) following upwardly revised gains of 292,000 and 24,000 during the prior two months. A 180,000 increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Barron’s
August 8, 2016
The unemployment rate stayed steady at 4.9% as the labor force grew more than 400,000. Wages ticked up by 0.3%, and have risen 2.6% in the past year, the most since 2009.
Business Insider
August 5, 2016
The Wall Street Journal
Sunday, August 7, 2016
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has ruled out negative interest rates, widening a gap between European and British monetary policy. "We have other options to provide stimulus if more stimulus is needed so we don't need to go to that resort," he said.
Market News International
August 3, 2016
The European Central Bank's purchases of European corporate bonds are bringing down borrowing costs for businesses and helping them reduce their reliance on bank lenders, according to the central bank's Economic Bulletin. The bond buying is narrowing spreads for investment-grade bonds as well as for high-yield debt not included in the program, the ECB said.
The Wall Street Journal
August 2, 2016
The Cabinet of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has authorized $274 billion in spending to boost the economy. Only part of the package is new money, most of which will be spread through the next two years.
Barron’s
August 8, 2016
Bill Gross, Jeffrey Gundlach and other elder statesmen of the markets, including Stanley Druckenmiller, George Soros, and Carl Icahn, all have deemed themselves negative on stocks.
Barron’s
August 8, 2016
The improving jobs market makes it more likely the Fed will raise rates, possibly as soon as September. After Friday’s report, futures markets indicated that the chance of a September hike had risen to 26% from 18%.
IBD
August 8, 2016
Mohamed El-Erian said bond traders underestimate the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month after the surge in U.S. hiring bolstered the case for tighter monetary policy. He would put the odds at 40%-45%.
Barron’s
August 8, 2016
Companies are issuing massive amounts of debt to buy stocks as the market shrinks. A Deutche Bank report notes that S&P 500 companies pass out two-thirds of their earnings through buybacks and dividend. Factset further notes that those same companies spent $166.3 billion on share buybacks in the first quarter, a post-recession high and one only surpassed by $178.5 billion in the third quarter of 2007.

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