Key data releases this week include: ISM manufacturing (Mon), FOMC meeting minutes (Wed), ISM non-manufacturing (Thu), ECB meeting minutes (Thu), China foreign reserves (Thu), and nonfarm payrolls (Fri).
Haver
June 29, 2017
Economic growth was revised to 1.4% during Q1'17, up from 1.2% estimated last month and 0.7% estimated initially. Growth remained the weakest in three quarters. A 1.2% advance had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Raised estimates of consumer spending and foreign trade accounted for the revision.
Reuters
June 28, 2017
FT
Wednesday, June 28, 2017
Statements from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney appear to have caused a degree of market movement and confusion, resulting in surges for eurozone bond yields and the pound. Draghi's comments that intimated a change to the ECB's bond-buying policy are said to have been misinterpreted, while Carney's comments that the UK interest rate may need to rise seemed at odds with his stated opinion from last week.
Market News International
June 29, 2017
China's official purchasing managers index for the manufacturing sector posted a surprise increase to 51.7 for June, up from May's 51.2. The median forecast of analysts surveyed by Market News International projected a decline to 51.1.
Bloomberg
June 28, 2017
The world’s No. 2 economy remained strong in the second quarter after a surprisingly robust start to the year, even as the property sector weakened, according to the China Beige Book. Policy support, a lack of shocks, and a looming political transition have made this year a best-case scenario for the economy despite initial signs of de-leveraging. Hiring strengthened, revenue growth accelerated, and sale price gains eased fears deflation may weigh on growth.
Barron’s
July 3, 2017
It may be a while before the ECB and BOE tighten, but the five biggest central banks collectively are buying fewer and fewer assets. Even if they haven’t started to sell yet, the direction they are headed is clear: further away from easing.
Barron’s
July 3, 2017
Global central banks have expanded their balance sheets to $19 trillion from about $3 trillion in 2000. Given the size and spread and duration of monetary stimulus, it’d be unrealistic to expect the path back to normal not to contain events that might trigger forced selling of assets bought on Leverage.
Applied Global Macro Research/Barron’s
July 3, 2017
“The U.S. economic expansion is now eight years old, making it the third longest on record. We try to pinpoint early warning signals of recessions. The results suggest the next recession is still a long way off and the current expansion is likely to break the 10-year longevity record.”
Barron’s
June 26, 2017
Most of the cryptocurrencies in wide circulation lost value Monday. Ethereum dropped almost 20%, and bitcoin declined more than 4.5% as 38 of the 40 cryptocurrencies listed on Crypto Market Cap finished the day lower.
Reuters
June 29, 2017
To prevent the federal government from defaulting on its financial obligations, Congress must increase the national debt limit by early to mid-October, the Congressional Budget Office said. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin believes that the US could reach the debt ceiling in September.

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