Key data releases this week include: NFIB small business optimism (Tue), Beige Book (Wed), Yellen’s semi-annual monetary policy report to congress (Wed)(Thu), PPI (Thu), retail sales (Fri), CPI (Fri), industrial production (Fri), and consumer sentiment (Fri).
Haver
July 7, 2017
Nonfarm payrolls rose 222,000 (1.5% y/y) during June. It was the strongest gain since February. A 180,000 increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The rise followed a 152,000 gain in May and a 207,000 April rise. Together these figures were revised up by 47,000.
Bloomberg
July 5, 2017
Reuters
Tuesday, July 4, 2017
The European Central Bank's quantitative-easing policy is encountering difficulties due to a growing shortage of sovereign debt available for purchase. The ECB has missed its targets for buying Finnish, German, Irish and Portuguese bonds, leading to disproportionate French and Italian purchases.
Reuters
July 6, 2017
Luxemburger Wort /Agence France-Presse
Thursday, July 6, 2017
July 6, 2017
Politico Pro
European Central Bank policymakers are leaning toward moving very slowly in reducing stimulus to avoid triggering turmoil in financial markets, according to minutes of the ECB's most recent meeting. Policymakers said the ECB must exercise "continued caution in communication" because perception of a move away from stimulus could lead to market volatility.
Bloomberg
July 4, 2017
Reuters
Tuesday, July 4, 2017
July 4, 2017
Politico Pro
The European Commission concluded months of negotiations by granting formal approval to Italy's plan to provide €5.4 billion of aid to the troubled Monte dei Paschi di Siena bank. The lender agreed to implement a five-year restructuring plan that includes an overhaul of its business model and measures to improve its management of credit risk.
CNBC
July 5, 2017
Kenneth Rogoff, an economics professor at Harvard University and former economist at the International Monetary Fund, expressed deep concern over China's fast-rising debt, despite efforts to control it while encouraging growth. Pointing out that regional countries are economically dependent on China, Rogoff says a fall in growth would be widely felt.
Barron’s
July 10, 2017
“We think the setup is for the Fed to feel more confident about starting to shrink the balance sheet this year, likely beginning in September,” writes Michael Darda, MKM Partners’ chief economist, “and to lift short rates at least once before 2017 concludes.”
Barron’s
July 10, 2017
Passive and quantitative strategies now account for 60% of equity assets, says Marko Kolanovic of JPMorgan. By his estimates, just 10% of trading volume originates with fundamental discretionary traders.
Daniel Ivascyn, CIO, PIMCO/Barron’s
July 10, 2017
“We have reduced risk over the past eight months, trimming less-liquid positions and getting more defensive on credit exposure and duration. There isn’t much value. This is the time to build up liquidity and reduce the weaker forms of credit risk within the overall portfolio.”
The New York Times
July 5, 2017
Market News International
Wednesday, July 5, 2017
Federal Reserve officials are deeply divided on the issue of when to start cutting the size of the central bank's bond portfolio, according to minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's June meeting. Opinions ranged from "a couple of months" to waiting until December.

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