Key data releases this week include: existing home sales (Mon), FHFA house price index (Tue), FOMC rate decision (Wed), durable goods (Thu), and Q2 GDP (Fri).
Haver
July 20, 2017
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.6% (4.0% y/y) during June following a 0.2% May gain, revised from 0.3%. It was the strongest increase since January. A 0.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Three-month growth improved to 4.5% (AR) versus 3.5% in May.
Bloomberg
July 24, 2017
Sales of existing home fell 1.8% m/m in July to a 5.52m annual rate (forecast was 5.57 million). Median sales price rose 6.5% y/y to a record $263,800. Inventory of available properties fell 7.1% y/y to 1.96m, marking the 25th consecutive year-on-year decline. A limited number of properties listed for sale remains the biggest hurdle for the market.
The Wall Street Journal
July 20, 2017
The European Central Bank has indicated that it has no plans yet to start tapering its bond-buying scheme, with President Mario Draghi saying it will be discussed in the fall. Other central banks such as the Bank of Japan have made similar decisions, as inflation continues to remain low despite a generally brightening economic outlook.
Nikkei Asian Review
July 20, 2017
The Asian Development Bank raised its forecasts for GDP growth among Asian emerging economies this year to 5.9%, up from its previous 5.7% estimate. The unexpected strength of China's economy is driving the acceleration, the multinational bank said.
Reuters
July 23, 2017
China's dollar-denominated bond holdings, which have increased nearly 20 times since the financial crisis to more than half a trillion dollars, could give the Federal Reserve pause before raising interest rates further. While the Fed has yet to flag Chinese debt as a concern, analysts expect it to affect interest-rate decisions before long.
Bloomberg
July 20, 2017
The Bank of Japan, which left its monetary stimulus program unchanged, has once again pushed back the date that it expects to hit its 2% inflation target. The central bank said it now expects inflation will reach 2% in the fiscal year that begins in April 2019, replacing its previous target that called for achieving 2% inflation in the 2018 fiscal year.
Barron’s
July 24, 2017
The Fed is all but certain to keep the federal-funds target range at 1% to 1.25% when it meets this week. More interesting is what the FOMC says about the long-anticipated shrinkage of its $4.5 trillion balance sheet. The probability of another hike by December has dwindled to just 39.2%.
Barron’s
July 24, 2017
Why does inflation keep falling short of expectations? For one thing, excess debt encourages saving, not spending. According to data from the Institute of International Finance, global debt hit an all-time high this year of $217 trillion, roughly 327% of global gross domestic product.
Barron's
July 24, 2017
The fall in the dollar may help S&P 500 companies to beat earnings expectations this year. So far in 2017, the dollar has dropped 7% against its trading partners. The S&P 500 earnings-per-share typically rise about 1% for every 2% decline in the greenback.

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