Key data releases this week include: nonfarm productivity (Mon), ISM non-manufacturing (Mon), Durable goods orders (Mon), and ECB policy meeting (Thu).
June 2, 2017
The May employment report sent mixed signals about labor market conditions. Nonfarm payrolls rose 138,000 (1.5% y/y) last month. A 182,000 increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The rise followed a 174,000 April gain and a 50,000 March increase. Together these figures were revised down by 66,000.
May 30, 2017
Personal income increased 0.4% during April following an unrevised March rise. The rise matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Wages & salaries jumped 0.7% (3.7% y/y) after holding steady in March. Personal spending rose an expected 0.4% (4.3% y/y), the strongest rise in four months.
June 1, 2017
The ISM factory sector composite index, at 54.9, was little changed last month from April's reading of 54.8. The figure has been trending higher since Q4'15. A level of 54.8 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
June 5, 2017
Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in May for the 89th consecutive month, The Institute of Supply Management said on Monday. The index reached 56.9 for the month, falling slightly short of expectations. Economists polled by Thomson Reuters had forecast the index to fall slightly to 57 for the month of May.
The Wall Street Journal
June 4, 2017
This week's European Central Bank meeting is widely expected to deliver an upbeat assessment on the eurozone's progress toward recovery, and there may even be an announcement that the process of ending its bond-buying scheme is in sight. However, the process will involve a number of contentious issues, particularly the timing of any interest-rate rise.
June 5, 2017
Britons will go to the polls on Thursday, after Prime Minister Theresa May called a snap election in April, gambling that a vote three years early would result in a bigger conservative majority and strengthen her hand as she negotiates Britain’s exit from the EU.
May 31, 2017
China's factory activity continues to expand. In May, the manufacturing purchasing managers index was at 51.2 on a scale in which anything above 50 indicates growth, topping the forecast of 51 by economists Bloomberg surveyed.
Nikkei Asian Review
June 2, 2017
In the Bank of Japan's campaign to eradicate deflation, it has increased the assets on its balance sheet to more than 500 trillion yen, which is 93% of Japan's GDP, a proportion not matched by any other major economy. By comparison, the Federal Reserve's assets are about 23% of the US GDP, while the European Central Bank's assets amount to 28% of the eurozone's GDP.
Strategas Research/Barron’s
June 5, 2017
“What normally ends bull markets is inflation. The good news is we are in a bit of a sweet spot where the economy is picking up and unemployment is low, but we probably still have a little time before the Fed has to get really aggressive.”


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