Key data releases this week include: ISM manufacturing index (Mon), construction spending (Mon), ISM non-manufacturing index (Wed), factory orders (Thu), and nonfarm payrolls (Fri).
Haver
September 28, 2017
Economic growth during Q2'17 was revised higher to 3.1% (2.2% y/y) from 3.0% in the second estimate, and compared to 2.6% in the advance report. It was the quickest rate of increase since Q1'15. The latest figure matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Haver
September 26, 2017
Sales of new single-family homes fell 3.4% (-1.2% y/y) to 560,000 during August, following a 5.5% drop in July to 580,000, revised from 571,000. August sales were at the lowest level since December. The figures do not include the full effects due to Hurricane Harvey. Expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey had been for 585,000 sales.
Haver
September 27, 2017
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales fell 2.6% (-2.6% y/y) during August to an index level of 106.3 (2001=100). That followed an unrevised 0.8% July decline, falling to the lowest level since January 2016.
Market News International
September 25, 2017
The eurozone's economic recovery is well underway but needs "very substantial" monetary-policy support before the trend delivers stronger inflation, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi told the European Parliament. He said the central bank will make most of the key decisions about how quickly to phase out its bond-buying program at its October meeting.
Reuters
September 25, 2017
China's National Development and Reform Commission said it has made progress in tapering its overall leverage ratio and bringing debt risks under control. However, S&P Global Ratings cut China's credit rating last week, as did Moody's Investors Service in May, with both firms stating that rising debt levels remain a serious concern.
Barron’s
October 2, 2017
RBC Capital Markets estimates that a drop to 20% in the corporate tax rate from the average effective rate of 27% would add $10.50 per share to earnings. (The current 2018 consensus forecast is $145.) That would be worth around 200 points (or about 8%) for the S&P 500.
Barron’s
October 2, 2017
Guggenheim calculates that when the market cap- to-GDP ratio reaches levels currently experienced by the market, returns from stocks over the subsequent decade are below the 10-year Treasury yield. Specifically, the team’s model suggests that annual returns from equities will be just 0.9%, versus the 2.2% on the 10-year note if held to maturity.
Barron’s
October 2, 2017
Since 1928, there have been 29 Septembers in which the S&P 500 made a 12-month high. Following those 29 instances, the market rose over 80% of the time in the fourth quarter, averaging a 3.7% increase. When those highs where confirmed by the advance/decline line (as is the case now), stocks increased an average of 5.9% in the fourth quarter.
Bloomberg
September 30, 2017
The Wall Street Journal
Friday, September 29, 2017
President Donald Trump said he will make a nomination for the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve within the next two or three weeks. He has held meetings with Fed Chair Janet Yellen, Governor Jerome Powell, former Governor Kevin Warsh and White House economic adviser Gary Cohn, officials said.

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