Key data releases this week include: retail sales (Tue), housing starts (Wed), FOMC meeting minutes (Wed), industrial production (Thu), leading economic indicators (Thu), and consumer sentiment (Fri).
Haver
August 8, 2017
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the total job openings rate rose to 4.0% during June from 3.8% in May, revised from 3.7%. It was the highest level since last July, equaling the record. Despite the increase, the hiring rate held steady at 3.7%, its highest level since last August.
Haver
August 11, 2017
The Consumer Price Index ticked 0.1% higher (1.7% y/y) during July following no change in June. A 0.2% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Prices excluding food & energy gained 0.1% (1.7% y/y) for the fourth straight month. A 0.2% rise was anticipated.
Bloomberg
August 14, 2017
Financial Times
Sunday, August 13, 2017
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said he expects the recent euro rally to continue based on healthy domestic spending and investment, and did not voice any concern about its possible effect on exports and further growth, which contrasts with his more cautious statements when the euro strengthened in 2014.
Barron’s
August 14, 2017
The FOMC’s dot plot of year-end projections calls for one more 25-basis-point hike from the current target of 1% to 1.25%. But fed-fund futures give only a 25.5% probability of such a move.
Barron’s
August 14, 2017
Technology companies’ strong sales, nearly 60% of which are earned abroad, look even stronger when translated back into dollars. The dollar has declined against every major currency in 2017, and is down 11% against the euro.
Jim Paulsen, Leuthold Group/Barron’s
August 14, 2017
“Slow but broadly based global economic momentum, remarkably tame inflation, interest-rate pressures, and a perpetual wall of worries – valuations too high, VIX too low, bad seasonals, FANG concentration, Federal Reserve anxieties, and a nuclear standoff – should push the S&P 500 index toward 2600.”
Barron’s
August 14, 2017
With 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported quarterly results, earnings look to have grown 10% year over year. Well above the 6.4% growth predicted on June 30, according to FactSet. Guidance issued during the third quarter has been the strongest in seven years, with just four more companies offering lower forecasts than those offering positive projections.
Barron’s
August 14, 2017
China accounted for 28% of global economic growth last year, more than the U.S., Europe, and Japan combined.”
Bloomberg
August 7, 2017
Federal Reserve officials James Bullard and Neel Kashkari have downplayed concern that the central bank's shrinkage of its $4.5 trillion balance sheet will prompt market turbulence and have said low inflation will not derail the effort. Some see the comments as indication the Fed will not increase interest rates in the near future.

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