Key data releases this week include: FHFA house price index (Tue), existing home sales (Tue), new home sales (Thu), leading economic indicators (Thu), durable goods orders (Fri), and Q4 GDP (Fri).
Haver
January 18, 2018
Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 220,000 (+2.0% y/y) during the week ended January 13 following an unrevised 261,000 claims in the week prior. The latest reading was the lowest in 45 years. Expectations had been for a decline to 250,000 claims in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Reuters
January 16, 2018
The euro, driven by optimism about the eurozone economy, hit a three-year high of $1.2296 Monday. Currency traders were encouraged by a statement from a European Central Bank official that the ECB might fully end bond buying after September if economic and inflation trends hold.
Deutsche Welle
January 21, 2018
Delegates of Germany's Social Democratic Party voted to authorize formal negotiations that could lead to the formation of a governing coalition with German Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union and its sister party in Bavaria. The narrow margin by which delegates gave approval raised doubts about whether party leader Martin Schulz will be able to win his party's backing when the coalition deal has been finalized.
Reuters
January 18, 2018
BBC
Thursday, January 18, 2018
The Chinese economy expanded 6.8% in the fourth quarter compared with Q4 of 2016, faster than expected. The development is expected to help policymakers, who are trying to reduce debt and pollution without reining in growth.
Barron’s
January 22, 2018
According to Investors Intelligence’s latest poll of advisory services, bulls rose to 66.7%, the highest since April 1986, while bears fell to just 12.7%. Another fun fact: At week’s end the S&P 500 was one day away from setting a record for its longest run without a 5% dip.
Barron’s
January 22, 2018
When interest rates spike as much as they recently have, the S&P has advanced an average of just 2.7% during the following 12 months. That compares with an average of more than 10% when yields remain contained within one standard deviation of their trend.
MLex
January 19, 2018
French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire says Germany and France will submit proposals for regulation of cryptocurrencies to the Group of 20. Le Maire and his German counterpart say global rules for digital currencies are necessary to deal with tax evasion, money laundering and other criminal activities.
Jack Ablin, BMO/Barron’s
January 22, 2018
“We expect Europe to join the growth train with tax cuts and looser regulations to address sclerotic growth. French President Macron is an advocate of tax cuts. Expect growth to expand further if America’s tax reform is met with matching cuts in Europe.”
Columbia Threadneedle/Barron’s
January 22, 2018
“We expect the 10-year yield to end the year at 2.75%. The forces that push it up from here are consistent economic growth, stable inflation, and a Fed that hikes three times. Risks to the upside are greater than those to the downside.”

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